Sixers Fit

How do you quantify the impact of acquiring a player? Do the numbers justify pursuing any player on the market?

By Ryan Kessler

Jan 15th, 2024, at 4:23 pm ET

Introduction 

Based on my previous article about how Morey should approach the trade deadline and free agency, I decided to attempt to quantify which player would best fit the Sixers' roster. I created a weighted average equation called Sixers fit that analyzes how each player would impact the team. The factors in the equation include defensive fit, system fit, shooting efficiency, scoring ability, and long-term fit. Every player in the study was given a score from 0-5 in each category based on their score relative to the competition. The best player’s score in a category was adjusted to equal 5.0 using a constant multiplier or divisor. This scoring method makes each category equal before weightings are applied. To standardize the statistics, I based all statistics on a per 36-minute basis to minimize the difference in opportunity. My equation uses statistics achieved over the last three seasons to give more validity to the data sets. 

Sixers Fit Methodology 

When creating a method to analyze which player is the best fit, I asked, “What would the Sixers need to make them true championship contenders?” The first thought that popped into my head was that they needed an on-ball defender to match up with the best opposing player. Embiid is a phenomenal defender, but no center can be expected to guard the most skilled player on the court. The current wings on the roster are decent on-ball defenders, with Melton being the Sixers' best defender. However, the guards are all primarily offensive-minded and specialize in knocking down shots. Overall, even though the defense is already above average, once the playoffs roll around they will need someone who is a strong defensive fit. Potential players would also need to quickly adapt to Nick Nurse’s coaching style while having a play style that compliments the current pieces (system fit). Then I thought about what the Sixers need on the offensive end and concluded that someone who can space the floor and be an efficient scorer would complement Maxey and Embiid’s playmaking (shooting efficiency). On the offensive end, it is also necessary for the Sixers to improve their scoring ability in the clutch. Every time the Sixers have a crucial possession, the ball goes to Joel on the perimeter, which has been terribly ineffective, especially come playoff time. It would be nice to acquire someone who could score in timely scenarios (scoring ability). Lastly, if the Sixers are willing to part with our scarce draft capital, this player must have some long-term fit with the team. I then put weights on each category based on how important of a factor they were, which resulted in the following equation:

Sixers Fit = (.3) Defensive Fit + (.25) System Fit + (.2) Shooting Efficiency + (.15) Scoring Ability + (.1) Long-term Fit 

Defensive Fit

I ran into issues deciding how to quantify a player's defensive impact. I initially tried using defensive win shares and defensive ratings to assess defensive impact. However, I came across research that I agree with that these metrics only partially capture a player's ability to defend.* The consensus was to use a simple weighted average calculation assessing a player's ability to make a defensive impact by giving greater importance to steals and blocks, as reflected in the following formula:

Defensive Fit = (.45) Steals + (.45) Blocks + (.1) Defensive Rebounds x Multiplier

System Fit

I also ran into difficulty creating a quantitative analysis of how well a player will fit in a system, so I qualitatively assigned each player a score from 0-5 with a proper explanation.

Zach Lavine: 3.0

As a starting point, Nurse favors lengthy, versatile defenders - Lavine is neither. And while Lavine is an excellent scorer and athlete, he does not fit well with the Sixers' current roster. as he would take too many shots away from Embiid and Maxey. Just not enough bang on the defensive end to offset the overall negative impact he'd have on the rotation on the offensive end.

Demar DeRozan: 4.0

Derozan is a much better fit than Lavine because of his defense and shot creation in the mid-range. The Sixers need someone who scores down the stretch, and DeRozan would fill that void. However, like Lavine, Derozan would also take shots away from the Sixers' stars without being an elite defensive presence. 

Alex Caruso: 3.8

I'll start with the premise that Alex Caruso would be an excellent fit for almost any team. He has an elite locker room presence, makes good decisions on the floor, continues to impact the game with hustle plays, and hits timely shots. However, given that the Sixers already have Patrick Beverly, who has done a fantastic job in a similar role, Caruso would not move the needle enough to help the Sixers win a championship.

Pascal Siakam: 4.6

Pascal Siakam automatically gets a bump in his rating because he has been successful in Nurse's system during his tenure with the Raptors. Siakam is a lengthy 6’8” wing who can push the pace in transition and put pressure on the defenses. Even though he would adapt to the system immediately, he does not fill their needs. He is having the worst shooting year, hitting only 26% of his three-pointers, and his defensive presence is not elite despite his versatility. Siakam would be a great fit, but he does not perfectly fill the holes in the Sixers' roster.

OG Anunoby: 5.0

OG Anunoby would be the perfect fit for the Sixers. He has played in the Nurse system for most of his career, is an excellent on-ball defender, and can shoot the ball effectively without dominating it. He checks all the boxes fitting into this team and deserves the highest ranking in this category.

Jerami Grant: 4.2

Jerami Grant fills most of the Sixers' needs. He is a solid defender who can knock down the three-ball and has vastly improved his ability to create shots throughout his career. Despite his profound impact on the offensive end, however, the Sixers need a defensive specialist who can change the game on the defensive end by locking down key opponents' stars during the playoffs.

De’Andre Hunter: 3.5

De’Andre Hunter is a super versatile defender who is just an average shooter. Adding a player of this caliber would not move the needle in making a title run. His play is very similar to that of Nico Batum and Robert Covington, and he would fail to add a new dimension to the team. He has the potential to be an effective player if traded from the Hawks roster, but he simply does not fit with the Sixers at this juncture. 

Paul George: 4.8

Paul George will fit in any system he plays in. He makes a profound impact defensively by consistently guarding the top-tier players. Additionally, George does everything well on the offensive end. He can score on all three levels and make the right reads. His game would compliment Maxey and Embiid nicely. The only thing George is missing is that he has not played in the Nurse system like Anunoby.

Kawhi Leonard: 4.7

Kawhi Leonard is very similar to Paul George in his ability to defend and score. He would immediately impact the Sixer's roster and add a defensive edge to this team. The only reason Kawhi is ranked lower than PG is his inability to stay on the court. The best ability is availability, and Kawhi's knees still concern me. 

Shooting Efficiency

In calculating a player's shooting efficiency, I used a variation of true shooting percentage. I used a weighted average favoring a player’s 3PT% because the Sixers need someone who can knock hit threes when the defense collapses on Embiid and Maxey. Since there is minimal variation among percentages, there is less variation in the results for this metric. The formula used for shooting efficiency is displayed below:

Shooting Efficiency = (.5) 3PT% + (.3) 2PT% + (.2) FT% x Multiplier 

Scoring Ability

Each player is given a from 0.0-5.0 based on points per 36 minutes and using a divisor of 9.91.

Long-term Fit 

Each player is given a score from 0-5 based on age and potential to impact the team in the long run. 

Conclusion

The players who scored the best using my methodology were Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Leonard recently received a massive three-year extension for $153 million, so the Sixers will most likely be unable to get him, especially with the drastically improved play of the Clippers since the Harden trade. They currently sit in fourth place in the Western Conference and have won eight of their last ten games. Paul George can still become a free agent this summer, and I would highly recommend that the Sixers do everything to go after him. However, if the Clippers continue this hot steak and string together a postseason run, my best guess would be that he returns. George is the perfect fit as he is a superb defender and an extremely efficient shooter. My only concern would be that he would take opportunities away from Maxey, but George is showing that he can play with other ball-dominant stars. 

The next highest scorer was OG Anunoby for Sixers Fit. Unfortunately, while writing this article, Anunoby, with Malachi Flynn and Precious Achiuwa, was traded to the Knicks for Immanuel Quickly, RJ Barrett, and a second-rounder. Since his arrival to the Knicks, they have a 5-2 record with an extremely high point differential in those games. He has been everything that the Knicks have needed. His spacing provides more freedom for Brunson and Randle while he also plays stellar defense and knocks down open jumpers. RJ and IQ were both ball-dominant guards who clogged up space and took opportunities away from Brunson and affected his ability to manage the game. IQ and RJ have also played very well for the Raptors, so it seems like a win-win situation for both organizations. The Sixers missed their chance to get an excellent piece, and now I’m unconvinced that they should even make any deadline acquisition.

That being said, Pascal Siakam is the last significant name that fans should keep an eye on. The Sixers are expected to be in the sweepstakes for Siakam after the Raptors officially announced that they are moving on from him. Siakam scored the fourth-best in Sixers fit with a score of 4.16, but it probably does not justify giving up a haul for him. On one hand, Siakam previously had success with Nurse being the clear-cut second option on the championship team. He is additionally an extremely versatile defender with his large frame and athleticism while being one of the best transition players in the league. On the other hand, however, he does not space the floor and is having an abysmal shooting season this year. By clogging the paint, it may throw off the efficiency of this offense which revolves around Maxey and Embiid attacking the rim and putting pressure on the defense. I would go after him for the right price, but I’m not fully convinced he is the solution to the Sixers' needs. 

*Defensive Metric Stats- https://www.bruinsportsanalytics.com/post/defensive_rating#:~:text=Thus%2C%20in%20this%20case%2C%20we,agreeably%20with%20Steals%20Per%20Game.

Excel File:

Morey Magic Analysis.xlsx

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